I do not think I have ever been more excited for a Friday of the NCAA Tournament than I am this year. The 'Pack is back and all five ACC teams will be playing. Even before conference tournament season, I always catch the Madness, but 3/16/12 will probably be the Maddest I have ever been. Without further ado, here are my thoughts on each ACC team leading into the NCAA Tournament.
Midwest #1 UNC - Greensboro vs. #16 Lamar/#16 Vermont - Fri. 3/16 4:10pm
The Tar Heels entered the season ranked #1 and as the favorite of many prognosticators to win the National Championship, even drawing comparisons to the 2005 and 2009 title-winning squads. After Kentucky, UNC is as good a bet as any to win it all again this year, but they are not the same caliber of team that Roy Williams led to One Shining Moment in '05 and '09.
How far will the Heels go this year? It is difficult to answer without knowing when John Henson - the ACC Defensive Player of the Year who sprained his wrist against Maryland and is listed as questionable for Friday - will return to the lineup and if he will be his usual game-changing self when he does. The Heels certainly don't need Henson to make it to next weekend and could still be a Final Four team without him, but that would be their ceiling.
Either way, I think the Elite Eight match-up with Thomas Robinson and Kansas in Jayhawk-friendly St. Louis will be the end of the road for this team.
South #2 Duke - Greensboro vs. #15 Lehigh - Fri. 3/16 7:15pm
With what I have seen from Duke this year, I considered the Blue Devils to be a prime candidate for a first weekend exit before the brackets were released. Now that I have seen their match-ups, however, I think they will make it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out to the Baylor Bears. In my opinion, Duke's two biggest issues this season are extremely detrimental come tournament time - they play below-average defense (especially by Duke standards) and they lack the experienced, "F*** you, I won't let us lose" leader(s) like Laettner, Hurley, Battier, Williams, Scheyer, and Singler.
East #3 FSU - Nashville vs. #14 St. Bonaventure - Fri. 3/16 2:45pm
I really like the Seminoles this year and even chose them as my favorite to win the ACC Tournament because they are deep, experienced, athletic, and talented. Despite the return on investment from my ACC Tournament pick, I cannot shake the feeling that this team is bound to disappoint sooner rather than later. Couple their ACC Championship with how they exceeded expectations with a Sweet 16 run last year and barely lost to eventual Final Four participant VCU, FSU definitely is not sneaking up on anyone in this tournament.
With that said, I have toyed around with predicting the 'Noles to make a run to the Final Four, especially since East #1 Syracuse will not have Fab Melo and is due to also underwhelm. However, I think that Jared Sullinger and Ohio State will be too much for FSU to handle in the Sweet 16.
West #10 UVA - Omaha vs. #7 Florida - Fri. 3/16 2:10pm
I am not going to waste words here. The 'Hoos have no depth and rely on one great player (Mike Scott), two solid all-around players (Joe Harris, but he has a broken left hand, and Sammy Zeglinski), and a great defensive point guard who is an offensive liability (Jontel Evans). This looks like the formula for a First Round exit (I refuse to call it the Second Round when it is the first game for 60 teams).
Midwest #11 NCSU - Columbus #6 San Diego State - Fri. 3/16 12:40pm
What an accomplishment by Mark Gottfried and his team during his first year - my Wolfpack is back in the Big Dance! I was travelling during the Selection Show on Sunday and lamenting the #NCStateShit I had to deal with not being able to watch, until I learned that the ultimate #NCStateShit joke was on all 'Pack fans who were watching and sweating before NC State was the last tournament team to be revealed.
When I finally saw the brackets, I immediately fell in love with the match-up. The 'Pack should be able to dominate San Diego State on the interior and Calvin Leslie is going to be a match-up nightmare for the Aztecs' best player, Jamaal Franklin. Looking ahead, I think the winner of the State game will get to play #14 Belmont - my ultimate upset pick of the tournament against #3 Georgetown - so a Sweet 16 seemed feasible. Then, I remembered a little thing called #NCStateShit, all the "experts" and our President picked the 'Pack as a Sweet 16 candidate, and I saw this; suddenly, I came crashing back down to reality to become my usual paranoid and pessimistic NC State-self.
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