Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Playing With House Money

When Jason Clark's desperation three airballed to the ground and NC State officially reigned supreme over the Hoyas to advance to the Sweet 16, I did not know what to do or how to feel. Of course I was happy and some tears of joy eventually choked their way out of my eyes, but the anxiety I experienced during the game never truly subsided; I was dazed and confused.

You see, I am as diehard a Wolfpack fan as they come and as well-versed in their rich basketball tradition as someone who was not alive for 99 percent of it can be. This is only the 'Pack's third trip to the Sweet Sixteen (1989, 2005, 2012) since I was born in April of 1986 (they also advanced to the Sweet 16 that year, but I had not yet popped out) and I cannot even remember one of them because I was barely three at the time. My fanhood is basically in uncharted territory, hence the confusion surrounding my feelings.  

For a program with two National Championships, I have been convinced for the longest time that I am the jinx who spawned #NCStateShit. Remove the NCAA Tournament from the equation for a second and consider this factoid: when I was 11 months old, I supposedly sat on my Dad's lap and didn't move as I watched the Wolfpack win the 1987 ACC Tournament Championship to tie UNC for the league-lead (10 each; Duke had 7). Today, Duke has 19, Carolina has 17, and my Wolfpack still sit at 10. Fast forward 25 years to the present and consider this gem: for the first time EVER in my life, NC State is dancing longer than Duke (1985 was the last time it happened).

Needless to say, it has been an interesting week for my emotions thus far. It is great to be in Sweet 16, but I cannot allow myself to be overcome with joy because this used to be normal for NC State basketball. With that said, this team has exceeded expectations. No one thought a first-year coach returning from the coaching purgatory of being a television analyst could take a group that went 15-16 last year to where they are so quickly. This team has provided more entertainment than any I can remember, so, despite my reservations, I am still as giddy as a little girl at a Justin Bieber concert. 

At this point, the Wolfpack is playing with house money. Just making the tournament was a great accomplishment this season, so I will not let a loss to Kansas - no matter how it may happen - sour my feelings about the 2011-2012 NC State basketball season. If Calvin Leslie and everyone else returns next season in addition to the three incoming McDonald's All-Americans, how could anyone who doesn't wear blue not be excited about not only the future, but the present, of Wolfpack basketball? And that's exactly what this Sweet 16 trip is - a present. Thank you to all of Wolfpack Nation because I will always savor this moment.

*Unrelated note that I have to put on the record - I cannot say enough about how happy I am for CJ Williams, someone who wandered through a forest of mediocrity for his first three seasons and was under-utilized, only to emerge this year to help this team go where no one thought it could. In truth, I am happier for him than anyone else associated with the program because this was his last chance to experience something special.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Dancing Again... ACC Prospectus for the NCAA Tournament

I do not think I have ever been more excited for a Friday of the NCAA Tournament than I am this year. The 'Pack is back and all five ACC teams will be playing. Even before conference tournament season, I always catch the Madness, but 3/16/12 will probably be the Maddest I have ever been. Without further ado, here are my thoughts on each ACC team leading into the NCAA Tournament.

Midwest #1 UNC - Greensboro vs. #16 Lamar/#16 Vermont - Fri. 3/16 4:10pm

The Tar Heels entered the season ranked #1 and as the favorite of many prognosticators to win the National Championship, even drawing comparisons to the 2005 and 2009 title-winning squads. After Kentucky, UNC is as good a bet as any to win it all again this year, but they are not the same caliber of team that Roy Williams led to One Shining Moment in '05 and '09.

How far will the Heels go this year? It is difficult to answer without knowing when John Henson - the ACC Defensive Player of the Year who sprained his wrist against Maryland and is listed as questionable for Friday - will return to the lineup and if he will be his usual game-changing self when he does. The Heels certainly don't need Henson to make it to next weekend and could still be a Final Four team without him, but that would be their ceiling.

Either way, I think the Elite Eight match-up with Thomas Robinson and Kansas in Jayhawk-friendly St. Louis will be the end of the road for this team.

South #2 Duke - Greensboro vs. #15 Lehigh - Fri. 3/16 7:15pm

With what I have seen from Duke this year, I considered the Blue Devils to be a prime candidate for a first weekend exit before the brackets were released. Now that I have seen their match-ups, however, I think they will make it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out to the Baylor Bears. In my opinion, Duke's two biggest issues this season are extremely detrimental come tournament time - they play below-average defense (especially by Duke standards) and they lack the experienced, "F*** you, I won't let us lose" leader(s) like Laettner, Hurley, Battier, Williams, Scheyer, and Singler.

East #3 FSU - Nashville vs. #14 St. Bonaventure - Fri. 3/16 2:45pm

I really like the Seminoles this year and even chose them as my favorite to win the ACC Tournament because they are deep, experienced, athletic, and talented. Despite the return on investment from my ACC Tournament pick, I cannot shake the feeling that this team is bound to disappoint sooner rather than later. Couple their ACC Championship with how they exceeded expectations with a Sweet 16 run last year and barely lost to eventual Final Four participant VCU, FSU definitely is not sneaking up on anyone in this tournament.

With that said, I have toyed around with predicting the 'Noles to make a run to the Final Four, especially since East #1 Syracuse will not have Fab Melo and is due to also underwhelm. However, I think that Jared Sullinger and Ohio State will be too much for FSU to handle in the Sweet 16.

West #10 UVA - Omaha vs. #7 Florida - Fri. 3/16 2:10pm

I am not going to waste words here. The 'Hoos have no depth and rely on one great player (Mike Scott), two solid all-around players (Joe Harris, but he has a broken left hand, and Sammy Zeglinski), and a great defensive point guard who is an offensive liability (Jontel Evans). This looks like the formula for a First Round exit (I refuse to call it the Second Round when it is the first game for 60 teams).

Midwest #11 NCSU - Columbus #6 San Diego State - Fri. 3/16 12:40pm

What an accomplishment by Mark Gottfried and his team during his first year - my Wolfpack is back in the Big Dance! I was travelling during the Selection Show on Sunday and lamenting the #NCStateShit I had to deal with not being able to watch, until I learned that the ultimate #NCStateShit joke was on all 'Pack fans who were watching and sweating before NC State was the last tournament team to be revealed.

When I finally saw the brackets, I immediately fell in love with the match-up. The 'Pack should be able to dominate San Diego State on the interior and Calvin Leslie is going to be a match-up nightmare for the Aztecs' best player, Jamaal Franklin. Looking ahead, I think the winner of the State game will get to play #14 Belmont - my ultimate upset pick of the tournament against #3 Georgetown - so a Sweet 16 seemed feasible. Then, I remembered a little thing called #NCStateShit, all the "experts" and our President picked the 'Pack as a Sweet 16 candidate, and I saw this; suddenly, I came crashing back down to reality to become my usual paranoid and pessimistic NC State-self.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

2012 ACC Tournament Preview

#1. UNC 27-4 (14-2) - 12pm Fri. vs. UMD/WFU

Even if UNC tries to channel their inner-2005 or 2009 because they have greater aspirations this year, they should still win the ACC Championship. It has been a crazy year, however, and with the results in this tournament more important to other teams, I am predicting the Heels to lose in the semifinals to... Keep reading to find out.

#2. Duke 26-5 (13-3) - 7pm Fri. vs. Clemson/VT

Before I turned one in 1987, NC State won their last ACC Championship to tie Carolina for the league lead with 10. At the time, Duke had seven; in the 24 tournaments since, the Blue Devils have won exactly half to take the all-time lead over UNC, 19-17. I remain a jinx as State still only has 10.

The Blue Devils have owned this tournament ever since the current batch of Devils were born, and they play like it every year. Unfortunately for Duke fans, I don't expect any of that to matter this year. Especially without Ryan Kelly, I do not see Coach K's boys winning this tournament.

#3. FSU 21-9 (12-4) - 9pm Fri. vs. Miami/GT

If they can get past a motivated Miami team who has already beaten them once, I expect the Noles to win their first ACC Championship. Their unique combination of depth, talent, and defense plays well in this tournament setting. UNC owes the Noles something and I would expect a Tar Heel victory in that Finals match-up, but as I said, I see Carolina losing in the Semifinals to...

#4. UVA 22-8 (9-7) - 2pm Fri. vs. NCSU/BC

With only one all-time championship and the league's worst recent tournament history (the Hoos haven't advanced past the quarterfinals since 1995), the Hoos will curb-stomp my Pack's NCAA Tournament hopes, assuming State makes it past the Eagles in the First Round.

Since it's damn hard to beat any team three times in one season, Mike Scott will be trying to prove he is the league's Player of the Year in this tournament, and UNC has bigger fish to fry, I am then predicting the Cavaliers to knock out Carolina in the Semis before losing to FSU in the Finals. If the Noles don't make it past Miami, I am picking UVA to defeat Duke in the Finals.

#5. NCSU 20-11 (9-7) - 2pm Thurs. vs. BC

I think two wins will sneak State into the Big Dance, so naturally, some #NCStateShit will happen and I will be heartbroken at some point on Thursday or Friday. Four of the five all-time 12-seeds in this tournament have beaten the five-seed (when State was the 12-seed, it was the only time the five-seed won), so the BC game is not a given. Like I said, however, my money is on the Cavaliers sinking the Pack's NCAA ship on Friday.

#6. Miami 18-11 (9-7) - 9pm Thurs. vs. GT

Miami's talent was the most underrated in the ACC all preseason and up until they won at Cameron Indoor Stadium. With a tournament berth on the line and their new coach's penchant for tournament magic, I think the potential FSU-Miami game will be the most exciting of the tournament. If Miami can win that to secure a tournament bid, I think they will lose to Duke off that emotional hangover.

#7. Clemson 16-14 (8-8) - 7pm Thurs. vs. VT

Clemson locks up their NIT bid and then loses to Duke on Friday. The Hokies will miss Victor Davila (Yadkin County represent!).

#8. UMD 16-14 (6-10) - 12pm Thurs. vs. WFU

For some reason, I think Wake pulls the upset. Maryland should have the advantage in talent and on the sidelines, but I think some Tobacco Road magic will make Lefty and Sweaty realize that the tournament does not have to be held in North Carolina for Maryland to suck. With Terrell Stoglin caring about nothing except Terrell Stoglin, the Deacons carry over their momentmum from the almost-comeback in College Park at the beginning of the season.

#9. WFU 13-17 (4-12) - 12pm Thurs. vs. WFU

After exceeding everyone's regular-season expectations and pulling an upset in the tournament, Wake's season will end against the All-ACC Team... Oops, I meant UNC.

#10. VT 15-16 (4-12) - 7pm Thurs. vs. Clemson

As usual, Greenberg whines about being on the wrong side of the bubble... the CBI bubble that his Athletic Director won't pay for again.

#11. GT 11-19 (4-12) - 9pm Thurs. vs. Miami

I wonder what kind of record Paul Hewitt would have had with this team.

#12. BC 9-21 (4-12) - 2pm Thurs. vs. NCSU

I respect #NCStateShit too much to say anything.

Monday, March 5, 2012

My 2012 All-ACC Accolades

March 5, 2012
By: William Hinkle

Along with the resurgence of the North Carolina State University basketball program, I hope to resurrect this blog. As my Wolfpack just completed their first 20-win regular season since 2005-2006 and also finished league play with a winning record for the first time since the same year with a 70-58 victory at Virginia Tech in this year's last regular-season game, it is only appropriate that I offer my fact-based and sometimes red-tinted opinion on ACC awards (click here for the media's picks).

All-ACC First Team (Player, School, Entire Season Per-Game Averages (ACC Rank))

Tyler Zeller #44 Sr. F, UNC - 16.3 points (5th), 9.3 rebounds (2nd), .549 FG % (2nd), .803 FT % (8th), 1.4 blocks (8th)

Representing for the greatest number ever (David Thompson, anyone?), Zeller leads my All-ACC team and also garners my vote for the league's Player of the Year. I don't like lauding Tar Heels too much, so I will put this simply: with those stats and the fact that he is the most consistent leader of the league's best team, you can't vote for anyone else.

Mike Scott #23 Sr. F, UVA - 17.3 points (3rd), 8.2 rebounds (T-5th), .573 FG % (1st), .814 FT % (5th)

If he were a Tony Bennett recruit, I might use this SAT analogy - Mike Scott : Tony Bennett :: Julius Hodge : Herb Sendek. Like Hodge, Scott is undoubtedly one of the league's best and most-entertaining while stuffing the stat sheet. Look no further than his career-high 35 points in addition to 11 rebounds yesterday while leading his Cavs to the 4 seed and a first-round bye with the win at Maryland for proof.

As worthy a candidate for runner-up Player of the Year as there can be, I just couldn't vote him ahead of the best team's most consistent performer. My favorite part of Scott's game? His sweet face-up/mid-range game. The Pack's CJ Williams and Mr. Scott are the ACC's most automatic from 12-18 feet.

John Henson #31 Jr. F, UNC - 14.2 points (10th), 10.3 rebounds (1st), .507 FG % (4th), 3.0 blocks (1st)

The ACC's most intimidating player and biggest game changer, Henson would also get my vote for the league's Defensive Player of the Year. Like I said, I am not into gushing over players who wear blue. As you will come to find out, that applies to both shades of blue.

Kendall Marshall #5 So. G, UNC - 7.2 points (not in Top-25), 9.6 assists (1st), 1.3 steals (T-9th), 3.6 assist-to-turnover ratio (1st), 32.8 minutes (8th)

He might be the most integral cog in UNC's high-powered offensive machine. He is the league's best passer/facilitator.

Calvin Leslie #5 So. F, NCSU - 14.3 points (9th), 7.1 rebounds (9th), .514 FG % (3rd), 1.7 blocks (T-5th), 31 steals (not in top-10)

Definitely some red bias here, but if you look at conference-only stats - especially his production over the last half of the ACC season - this is a no-brainer. ACC-only stats and ranks: 15.3 points (7th), 7.9 rebounds (T-8th), .503 FG % (4th), 20 steals (1 shy of 10th-place 21). He is the only league player who could have boasted top-10 in all of these conference-only categories before last night's steal-less performance. The proverbial light has apparently turned on, so if Calvin returns for his junior season, he will be a contender for ACC Player of the Year.

All-ACC Second Team

Austin Rivers #0 Fr. G, Duke - 15.3 points (7th), 3.2 rebounds (not in top-25), 2.2 assists (not in top-10), .442 FG % (9th), 32.9 minutes (7th), .383 3-pt % (would be 3rd if qualified*)

Rivers should be the media's unanimous pick for Rookie of the Year and with no one from Duke on the First Team, a Blue Devil had to lead the Second Team. Who else would you have chosen?

Harrison Barnes #40 So. F, UNC - 17.4 points (3rd), 5.1 rebounds (19th), .458 FG % (7th), 1.0 assist (not in top-10)

Although he is overrated by most, that is more due to the insane expectations that were put on him before he ever arrived in Chapel Hill than his production. Barnes puts the ball through the net as well as anyone in the conference. With that said, I could argue that his three First-Team teammates deserve a lot of credit for making his job easier. Rebound numbers are solid, but they should be given his size and the pace at which UNC plays.

Terrell Stoglin #12 So. G, UMD - 21.2 points (1st), 3.4 rebounds (not in top-25), 1.9 assists (not in top-10) .404 FG % (10th), .377 3-pt % (3rd), 83 3-pt FG made (1st), 32.7 minutes (T-9th)

The latest rendition in a long list of nauseating Terrapins, Stoglin is the league's most prolific scorer as well as its most selfish player. Coincidence? I think not.

Michael Snaer #21 Jr. G, FSU - 14.1 points (11th), 3.9 rebounds (not in top-25), 1.9 assists (not in top-10), .844 FT % (3rd), 55 3-pt FG made (T-8th)

Not only did he deliver more clutch shots than anyone in the league, Snaer was the most consistent performer for the league's 3rd-best team as well. When you factor in his perimeter defense (which is difficult to quantify), an argument could be made that he belongs higher on this list.

Bernard James #5 Sr. F, FSU - 10.4 points (not in top-25), 8.3 rebounds (T-5th), .610 % (would be 1st if qualified*), 2.3 blocks (3rd)

After Henson, James is the league's most intimidating defensive presence and led the notoriously stingy Seminole defense. He also averaged 11.0 points in ACC games only, good enough to crack the top-25 at 22nd.

All-ACC Third Team

Lorenzo Brown #2 So. G, NCSU - 12.5 points (17th), 4.4 rebounds (not in top-25), .448 FG % (would be 7th if qualified*), 6.3 assists (2nd), .746 FT %, 1.7 steals (T-1st), 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio (T-4th), 33.6 minutes (5th)

Leslie may be the Pack's most talented player and best pro prospect, but no one is more important to NC State's success than Zo. As he sets the tone and tempo of the game, NC State will only go as far as Zo takes them. Former Heel Hubert Davis consistently calls Brown "the best all-around point guard" in the league, as evidenced by his well-rounded season-long box score.

Durand Scott #1 Jr. G, Miami - 13.0 points (14th), 5.3 rebounds (8th), .446 FG % (would be 8th if qualified*), 3.2 assists (6th), .797 FT % (10th), 1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio (6th), 33.4 minutes (T-6th)

A Cane had to be on this list somewhere and Scott edged out Kenny Kadji as my choice. Most of their numbers are comparable, but I gave the nod to Scott because his production is higher in most categories and he only trails Kadji by .3 rebounds per game despite the fact that Kadji is a forward.

CJ Harris #11 Jr. G, WFU - 16.8 points (4th), .479 FG % (5th), 3.1 rebounds (not in top-25), 2.5 assists (not in top-10), .856 FT % (2nd), 35.1 minutes (1st)

At this point, you can start making arguments for a handful of players. Harris has to be on this list, however, because of his offensive efficiency while playing more minutes than anyone in the conference and he led the Demon Deacons to exceed expectations with the 9-seed in the ACC Tournament.

Seth Curry #30 Jr. G, Duke - 13.5 points (12th), 2.5 rebounds (not in top-25), 2.4 assists (not in top-10), .869 FT % (1st), 1.3 steals (T-9th), .399 3-pt % (would be 3rd if qualified*), 59 3-pt FG made (7th)

Did he make my list because of a monster second half that led to an epic comeback against the Wolfpack or because of his offensive production for the league's second-best team? Both.

Mason Plumlee #5 Jr. F, Duke - 11 points (23rd), 9.2 rebounds (4th), .554 FG % (would be 2nd if qualified), 1.5 blocks (7th)

I have nothing to say about this pick other than he wears blue and almost averaged a double-double.

* "If qualified" ranks are only relative to those who have qualified, not other unqualified players.